The 2024 Municipal Elections in Brazil: Prospects for the Next Presidential Elections – II
Editor’s note: This is the second part of a two-part series on the 2024 city elections in Brazil.
by Matheus Jones Zago*
Reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling
This article continues the analysis of Brazil’s 2024 municipal elections, now focusing on results from the second round, held on October 27, 2024, in 51 municipalities, including 15 capitals. Key outcomes include high abstention rates, fragmentation within the right-wing, the decline of traditional parties, and implications for the 2026 national elections.
High Abstention Rates
The 2024 municipal elections recorded one of the highest abstention rates in recent history, with 29.26% of eligible voters abstaining in the second round, totaling nearly 10 million people. This rate is comparable to 2020, during the peak of the pandemic, when it reached 29.53%. Such persistently high abstention may indicate political disillusionment among Brazilians, who view partisan politics as a realm of unfulfilled promises and skepticism.
Regionally, abstention varies due to specific conditions. In Amazonas, for instance, drought conditions hindered voter access to polling stations, underscoring that, beyond political disillusionment, logistical and structural challenges still impact electoral participation.
This trend underscores a widening gap between representatives and citizens, potentially signaling a democratic participation crisis where public confidence in voting effectiveness is waning. Public policies are needed to rekindle voter interest in democratic engagement. Strengthening campaigns that highlight the importance of voting and promoting transparency in political practices could help reduce electoral apathy and enhance democratic representation. Additionally, increasing youth engagement and leveraging digital platforms are modern strategies to reconnect voters with political decision-making.
Right-Wing Rise and Fragmentation
The 2024 elections also highlighted the growth of right-wing forces in Brazilian politics, albeit with notable divisions within these groups. Parties such as the Liberal Party (PL), led by former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which won the most mayoral positions in large cities, showcased the strength of right and center-right factions. This rise is even apparent in traditionally left-leaning regions, such as the Northeast, where conservative forces captured most mayoral seats.
However, this growth does not imply unity. Bolsonaro remains a significant leader in this space, but the municipal elections reveal that other right-wing factions also exist in Brazil. The PSD’s success—winning in five capitals and leading in mayoral positions nationwide—suggests a moderate right with electoral appeal. This “moderate right” includes leaders who may represent alternatives to Bolsonaro in 2026, appealing to both centrist and conservative voters wary of extremism.
For the progressive camp, the right’s ascension presents challenges for the upcoming presidential election. The center-right’s victories in many capitals and municipalities indicate a shift that diminishes polarization and necessitates strategic reconsideration from the Brazilian left. The moderate right’s growth creates a scenario where both the left and far-right may struggle to gain traction within the political center, which appears to be the most competitive space for future election cycles.
In general, center and right-wing parties emerged as the biggest winners in the 2024 elections. The PSD led in the number of elected mayors (891) and tied with the MDB for the most mayors in state capitals (five each). Among cities with over 200,000 voters, the PL stood out with 16 mayoral positions. The MDB also demonstrated strong performance, securing 813 vice-mayors, 8,050 city council members, and 11.2 million votes, further solidifying the strength of center-right parties.
The PSD’s rise has led to direct competition with the PL for voters. In many regions, especially large, strategic cities, the PSD has attracted right-wing voters by positioning itself as a less radical alternative, with a flexible, center-right approach. This has placed the PSD in direct competition with the ideologically rigid PL, which adheres closely to Bolsonaro’s legacy. This rivalry illustrates segmentation within the right-wing camp, where conservative voters are divided between the pragmatic, moderate stance of the PSD and the more ideologically rigid stance of the PL.
The PSD’s approach in 2024 aligns with the “catch-all” party model, as political scientist Otto Kirchheimer described—a party aiming to broaden its base by appealing across ideological lines. With alliances spanning from center-left to right-wing groups, including roles within the Lula government, the PSD, led by Kassab, extends its reach through pragmatic flexibility. While this invites criticism from rigid right-wing segments, like Bolsonaro’s PL, it enables the PSD to navigate a fragmented political landscape by adjusting to local and national demands.
Decline of the PSDB and Center-Right Reconfiguration
The weakening of the Social Democratic Party (PSDB) in the 2024 elections marks a pivotal shift in Brazilian politics. Once a leading force in municipal politics, with the largest voter base, the PSDB now ranks ninth, having lost substantial representation. This decline reflects the party’s internal fragmentation, its inability to engage traditional voter bases, and the emergence of new forces occupying the center-right space, like the PSD and PL.
Voter migration suggests that the PSDB’s platform has not evolved to meet new voter demands, creating an opening for alternatives better attuned to these needs. The MDB and PSD, now governing some of the largest capitals, underscore the PSDB’s loss of appeal as Brazil’s main center-right force. By not renewing its leadership or agenda, the party has allowed its values to be adopted by other parties that, while maintaining a centrist approach, resonate more effectively with disillusioned PSDB voters.
This shift also points to a phenomenon of dealignment, where voters break party loyalty to seek pragmatic options. In the PSDB’s case, fragmentation not only results in a loss of influence but also strengthens parties capturing centrist voters with approaches that align better with local challenges. This development suggests a new political arena in Brazil, where the traditional dichotomy between the PT and PSDB gives way to a fragmented but prominent right and a center redefined by new leadership.
The Role of Alliances
The 2024 municipal election results underscore the role of alliances (coligações) in the Liberal Party’s (PL) growth strategy, positioning it above the Workers’ Party (PT) in coalition success. An analysis of key municipal coalitions shows that the PL was part of 1,562 winning tickets, compared to the PT’s 1,113. In cities with over 200,000 voters, Bolsonaro’s PL participated in 40 successful coalitions, while the PT engaged in 12, consolidating the PL’s municipal strength.
This preference for center-right alliances, particularly between the PL, PSD, and MDB, suggests a movement away from extreme right-left polarization. Political scientists studying coalitions suggest this trend may reflect a pursuit of pragmatic, less ideologically extreme alternatives that appeal to both conservative and moderate sectors. This is an area ripe for new political science research.
The PL’s expansion strategy, balancing bolsonarismo with a moderate stance, reflects internal divisions. PL President Valdemar Costa Neto advocates for a centrist approach to broaden alliances, while Bolsonaro’s followers hold a more rigid stance.
Flexible coalition-building and a widespread municipal presence position the PL well for future presidential elections, potentially broadening its support without relying solely on charismatic leadership.
The Consolidation of the Liberal Party in Brazilian Municipalities
Bolsonaro’s PL can be regarded as the principal winner of the 2024 elections. Securing 516 mayoral positions, including major capitals, the PL has demonstrated its ability to entrench Bolsonaro’s agenda, evolving from a charismatic movement into an organized political force. Affiliation with Bolsonaro’s ideology has given the PL unprecedented reach, with growth even in regions like the Northeast, where right-wing influence was historically limited, signaling the institutionalization of populist movements within Brazil’s party system.
The strengthening of bolsonarismo within the PL reinforces right-wing polarization, with Bolsonaro as a central figure but with potential for other leaders to emerge. The alliances between pragmatic and far-right factions reinforce the PL’s role as a representative of the institutionalized right, with potential to expand beyond Bolsonaro’s image. This evolving context suggests a right-wing spectrum capable of aligning with bolsonarismo or acting independently, preparing for a future presidential race characterized by a diversified and fragmented right, with a strong municipal presence in key regions.
* Matheus Jones Zago is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Würzburg, Germany. His research focuses on political organizations and cooperatives at the local level.
Matheus Zago (2024) "The 2024 Municipal Elections in Brazil: Prospects for the Next Presidential Elections – II". Brazilian Research and Studies Blog. ISSN 2701-4924. ISSN 2701-4924nameVol. 3 Num. 1. available at: https://bras-center.com/the-2024-municipal-elections-in-brazil-prospects-for-the-next-presidential-elections-ii/, accessed on: November 19, 2024.
The 2024 Municipal Elections in Brazil: Prospects for the Next Presidential Elections – I
Editor’s note: This is the first part of a two-part series on the 2024 city elections in Brazil.
by Matheus Jones Zago*
Reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil, held every four years, determine the mayors of 5,570 cities across the country, as well as their city council members. These elections serve as a political thermometer for the upcoming presidential elections, which follow two years later. To become mayor, a candidate must secure 50% plus one of the votes. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the contest moves to a second round. From a political science perspective, these elections offer an opportunity to understand local dynamics and the ongoing disputes between Brazil’s political parties.
The first round of the 2024 municipal elections, held on October 6, showcased varied results and diverse political dynamics across the country’s capitals, highlighting both the strength of the right and opportunities for the left. In São Paulo, the race was marked by polarization between Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), who are heading to the second round. Nunes, the incumbent mayor, received 29.48% of the votes, while Boulos secured 29.07%, signaling a sharp division between different regions of the city: Nunes led in the southern zone, while Boulos stood out in the central and peripheral areas.
In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD) secured his reelection in the first round with 60.47% of the votes, defeating Alexandre Ramagem (PL), who garnered 30.81%. This result suggests Paes’s resilience and a decline in the influence of Jair Bolsonaro in the city, as the candidate supported by the former president failed to win even in traditionally pro-Bolsonaro areas.
Other capitals also featured complex contests. In Belo Horizonte, Bruno Engler (PL) and Fuad Noman (PSD) will face each other in the second round, reflecting a regional competition with the presence of conservative agendas. Meanwhile, in Salvador, Bruno Reis (União Brasil) was reelected with a broad margin of 78.67%, consolidating the right’s dominance in the Bahian capital.
In the Northeast, Recife saw the reelection of João Campos (PSB) with 78.11% of the votes, reinforcing the strength of the PSB in the region. In Fortaleza, the second round will feature André Fernandes (PL) and Evandro Leitão (PT), reflecting a direct contest between the growth of Bolsonarismo and the PT’s attempt at recovery.
Advances and Challenges for Women
Despite no women being elected as mayors of capitals in the first round, there was an increase in the number of women mayors compared to 2020. In 2024, 724 women were elected, compared to 656 in the previous election, according to the TSE. However, women still represent only 15.5% of the total number of elected mayors, while 4,746 men hold 84.5% of the positions.
Proportion of Elected Women by State
The table below details the distribution of female mayors elected in the first round by state:
State |
Men Elected |
Women Elected |
% Women Elected |
|---|---|---|---|
AC |
21 |
1 |
4.55% |
AL |
78 |
24 |
23.53% |
AP |
14 |
2 |
12.50% |
AM |
50 |
11 |
18.03% |
BA |
355 |
59 |
14.25% |
CE |
144 |
38 |
20.88% |
ES |
74 |
2 |
2.63% |
GO |
208 |
35 |
14.40% |
MA |
173 |
42 |
19.53% |
MT |
128 |
13 |
9.22% |
MS |
65 |
12 |
15.58% |
MG |
775 |
67 |
7.96% |
PA |
112 |
28 |
20.00% |
PB |
167 |
54 |
24.43% |
PR |
359 |
36 |
9.11% |
PE |
151 |
28 |
15.64% |
PI |
195 |
29 |
12.95% |
RJ |
71 |
13 |
15.48% |
RN |
122 |
42 |
25.61% |
RS |
453 |
39 |
7.93% |
RO |
48 |
3 |
5.88% |
RR |
11 |
4 |
26.67% |
SC |
256 |
39 |
13.22% |
SP |
543 |
67 |
10.98% |
SE |
61 |
11 |
15.28% |
TO |
112 |
25 |
18.25% |
Roraima had the highest proportion of elected women mayors (26.67%), while Espírito Santo had the lowest (2.63%).
National Political Context
On a national level, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) stood out as one of the main winners in terms of the number of mayors elected in the first round, followed by the MDB and PP. In contrast, the Workers’ Party (PT) had a more modest performance, making advances in some capitals but facing challenges in others, such as São Paulo, where it relies on Boulos’s performance to extend its influence.
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil not only provided a diverse landscape of elected mayors but also showed significant changes in the distribution of city councilors and the performance of the main political parties at the local level.
Growth and Leadership of Political Parties
The Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the Progressives (PP), and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) stood out in the election of city councilors, consolidating their positions as the largest groups in municipal chambers across the country. A total of 58,000 councilors were elected, with these traditional parties showing dominance:
-
MDB: 8,064 councilors elected, an increase of 9.7% compared to 2020.
-
PP: 6,914 councilors elected, maintaining a prominent position.
-
PSD: 6,579 councilors elected, strengthening its presence in the South and Southeast regions.
Performance in the Mayoral Races: PSD Takes the Lead
For the first time in 20 years, the PSD surpassed the MDB in the mayoral races, electing 878 mayors in the first round, compared to the MDB’s 847.
Second Round Scenario: Spotlight on the PL
The Liberal Party (PL) performed impressively, participating in 23 out of 51 mayoral runoffs, marking its emergence as a powerful political force.
* Matheus Jones Zago is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Würzburg, Germany. His research focuses on political organizations and cooperatives at the local level.
Contrasting Labor Relations at Volkswagen: A Comparative Analysis of Germany and Brazil
by Tarik Hamdan*
Reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling
Introduction
The current crisis at Volkswagen in Germany presents a valuable opportunity to compare how workers in Germany respond, in contrast to those in other countries, particularly Brazil, even when facing the same company. These differences can be attributed to significant institutional variations between nations. Despite Volkswagen confronting one of the most severe challenges in its history, the German model of labor-capital relations retains its distinctive characteristics.
Volkswagen currently operates 10 factories in Germany. Six of these are dedicated to automobile production, located in Wolfsburg, Dresden, Hannover, Osnabrück, and Emden. The remaining four are responsible for component manufacturing, situated in Chemnitz, Braunschweig, Salzgitter, and Kassel (Wermke, 2024b). In contrast, the company has four factories in Brazil, three of which are in the state of São Paulo—São Bernardo do Campo, Taubaté, and São Carlos—and one in Curitiba, located in São José dos Pinhais (Hamdan, 2023).
Labor Relations at Volkswagen in Germany
On September 2, Volkswagen in Germany announced plans to close two factories: one producing auto parts and another dedicated to automobile manufacturing. Additionally, the company decided to terminate a collective agreement that previously safeguarded German jobs from operational layoffs.
Several indicators highlight the significant economic challenges faced by Volkswagen in Germany. The profit margin dropped notably from 3.8% in the first half of last year to 2.3% this year. Despite a production capacity of approximately 14 million units last year, the company produced only 9 million (Sindicato dos Metalúrgicos do ABC, 2024).
According to the company’s CFO, vehicle sales plummeted dramatically, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic (Wermke, 2024a). A major contributor to the crisis has been the decline in electric vehicle sales, driven by the rise of the Chinese automotive industry and the end of subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. Additionally, combustion engine sales have fallen (Wermke, 2024b). In the first half of 2024, Volkswagen’s main brand sold 1,518,756 vehicles, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous year, with sales revenue declining by 1.8% to 42.2 billion euros.
Although Volkswagen’s actions may seem severe, the German model of capitalism—characterized by codetermination on the Supervisory Board and co-management at the facility level—helps prevent the escalation of conflict (Thelen, 1992). The Supervisory Board oversees the Management Board and appoints its members. Of the 20 seats on the Supervisory Board, half are allocated to workers, with three of these ten seats held by IG Metall representatives. This structure ensures that decisions related to plant closures and significant labor cuts face strong resistance from workers. Additionally, key decisions at Volkswagen require an 80% majority from the Supervisory Board, complicating the process. The State also holds significant shares and occupies two seats on the Supervisory Board, making factory closures less likely.
Although IG Metall has threatened strikes as a last resort, the likelihood of a prolonged strike or an escalation to garner international support remains low. The institutional framework grants workers substantial power, mitigating potential conflicts. While this does not imply that losses will be entirely avoided, it suggests that they will be limited and mitigated over time.
Labor Relations at Volkswagen in Brazil
In comparison to Volkswagen in Germany, Brazilian workers face significantly harsher conditions. The absence of the codetermination model at the corporate level—since the facilities in Brazil belong to a subsidiary—and the weakness of the local works council, which lacks a formal role in co-management, force Brazilian workers to adopt alternative resistance strategies, often at multiple scales.
For example, Volkswagen’s history in the ABC region shows that, since the 1980s, trade unions have frequently resorted to strikes. Between 1980 and 1989, seven strikes occurred, followed by three strikes from 1990 to 1999, six strikes between 2000 and 2009, and only one since 2010. In contrast to Germany, where the low number of strikes reflects institutional power vested in the works council and Supervisory Board, the decline in strikes in Brazil is mainly due to economic crises and reduced structural and associational power among workers.
Graph 1: Number of strikes at Volkswagen in São Bernardo do Campo (1980–2024) Source: the author, based on Hemeroteca Digital
A similarly confrontational approach is seen at Volkswagen’s São José dos Pinhais facility. Despite Volkswagen’s operations there beginning in 1998, confrontations have been frequent. From 1998 to 2011, the factory experienced strikes almost every year. The most significant strikes occurred in 2009 and 2011, shutting down the plant for 21 and 39 days, respectively (Hamdan, 2023).
Brazilian workers have also utilized transnational strategies to confront challenges, an approach not commonly observed in Germany. The most significant of these is the Global Works Council (GWC), which brings together representatives from Volkswagen’s works councils worldwide. Brazilian workers have leveraged the GWC to secure investments in new products amid threats of plant closures or job reductions. This occurred in 2003, when Volkswagen threatened to shut down the São Bernardo do Campo plant, and workers successfully attracted the production of a new car model, the Tupi (Hamdan & Walmrath, 2024).
Conclusion
Although German workers are currently facing significant threats due to the company’s actions, the German model of conflict resolution—rooted in institutional mechanisms within the corporation and at the facility level—remains intact, even if the conflict results in a strike led by IG Metall. Ultimately, labor relations at Volkswagen in Germany tend to exhibit low levels of conflict and are largely localized. In contrast, labor relations at Volkswagen in Brazil are markedly more confrontational, requiring the use of transnational strategies such as the Global Works Council. These differences reflect the distinct institutional frameworks embedded in each country.
Bibliography
- Hamdan, Tarik Dias. Ação sindical transnacional: o caso da Volkswagen do Brasil. Dissertação (Mestrado em Sociologia). Rio de Janeiro: PPGSA/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 2023.
- Hamdan, T. D.; Walmrath, L. L. “Trajetórias e ideologias no sindicalismo transnacional: um estudo comparativo a partir da Volkswagen do Brasil (1999–2022).” Revista CEBRAP, 2024.
- Sindicato dos Metalúrgicos do ABC. “Volkswagen ameaça fechar fábricas na Alemanha.” Sindicato dos Metalúrgicos do ABC, 3 Sep. 2024. Available at: https://smabc.org.br/volkswagen-ameaca-fechar-fabricas-na-alemanha/. Accessed on: 9 Sep. 2024.
- Thelen, K. Union of Parts: Labor Politics in Postwar Germany. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1992.
- Wermke, L. “Report: Bei Volkswagen ist der Spielraum für Kompromisse eng.” Automobilwoche.de, 12 Sep. 2024a. Available at: https://www.automobilwoche.de/autohersteller/volkswagen-report-zur-krise-wie-es-jetzt-weitergeht. Accessed on: 16 Sep. 2024.
- Wermke, L. “Sieben Fragen und Antworten zum großen Knall bei VW.” Automobilwoche.de, 2 Sep. 2024b. Available at: https://www.automobilwoche.de/autohersteller/vw-sparprogramm-7-fragen-und-antworten-zum-grossen-knall. Accessed on: 24 Sep. 2024.
* Tarik Hamdan is a PhD candidate in Sociology at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), enrolled in the Sociology and Anthropology Graduate Program (PPGSA). His primary research interests lie in the sociology of work and economic sociology. Currently, he is examining various trade union strategies by comparing the automotive industry in Germany and Brazil, focusing on Volkswagen.
Tarik Hamdan (2024) "Contrasting Labor Relations at Volkswagen: A Comparative Analysis of Germany and Brazil". Brazilian Research and Studies Blog. ISSN 2701-4924. ISSN 2701-4924nameVol. 3 Num. 1. available at: https://bras-center.com/contrasting-labor-relations-at-volkswagen-a-comparative-analysis-of-germany-and-brazil/, accessed on: November 19, 2024.
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