The 2024 Municipal Elections in Brazil: Prospects for the Next Presidential Elections – II

Editor’s note: This is the second part of a two-part series on the 2024 city elections in Brazil.

by Matheus Jones Zago*

Reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling

This article continues the analysis of Brazil’s 2024 municipal elections, now focusing on results from the second round, held on October 27, 2024, in 51 municipalities, including 15 capitals. Key outcomes include high abstention rates, fragmentation within the right-wing, the decline of traditional parties, and implications for the 2026 national elections.

High Abstention Rates

The 2024 municipal elections recorded one of the highest abstention rates in recent history, with 29.26% of eligible voters abstaining in the second round, totaling nearly 10 million people. This rate is comparable to 2020, during the peak of the pandemic, when it reached 29.53%. Such persistently high abstention may indicate political disillusionment among Brazilians, who view partisan politics as a realm of unfulfilled promises and skepticism.

Regionally, abstention varies due to specific conditions. In Amazonas, for instance, drought conditions hindered voter access to polling stations, underscoring that, beyond political disillusionment, logistical and structural challenges still impact electoral participation.

This trend underscores a widening gap between representatives and citizens, potentially signaling a democratic participation crisis where public confidence in voting effectiveness is waning. Public policies are needed to rekindle voter interest in democratic engagement. Strengthening campaigns that highlight the importance of voting and promoting transparency in political practices could help reduce electoral apathy and enhance democratic representation. Additionally, increasing youth engagement and leveraging digital platforms are modern strategies to reconnect voters with political decision-making.

Right-Wing Rise and Fragmentation

The 2024 elections also highlighted the growth of right-wing forces in Brazilian politics, albeit with notable divisions within these groups. Parties such as the Liberal Party (PL), led by former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which won the most mayoral positions in large cities, showcased the strength of right and center-right factions. This rise is even apparent in traditionally left-leaning regions, such as the Northeast, where conservative forces captured most mayoral seats.

However, this growth does not imply unity. Bolsonaro remains a significant leader in this space, but the municipal elections reveal that other right-wing factions also exist in Brazil. The PSD’s success—winning in five capitals and leading in mayoral positions nationwide—suggests a moderate right with electoral appeal. This “moderate right” includes leaders who may represent alternatives to Bolsonaro in 2026, appealing to both centrist and conservative voters wary of extremism.

For the progressive camp, the right’s ascension presents challenges for the upcoming presidential election. The center-right’s victories in many capitals and municipalities indicate a shift that diminishes polarization and necessitates strategic reconsideration from the Brazilian left. The moderate right’s growth creates a scenario where both the left and far-right may struggle to gain traction within the political center, which appears to be the most competitive space for future election cycles.

In general, center and right-wing parties emerged as the biggest winners in the 2024 elections. The PSD led in the number of elected mayors (891) and tied with the MDB for the most mayors in state capitals (five each). Among cities with over 200,000 voters, the PL stood out with 16 mayoral positions. The MDB also demonstrated strong performance, securing 813 vice-mayors, 8,050 city council members, and 11.2 million votes, further solidifying the strength of center-right parties.

The PSD’s rise has led to direct competition with the PL for voters. In many regions, especially large, strategic cities, the PSD has attracted right-wing voters by positioning itself as a less radical alternative, with a flexible, center-right approach. This has placed the PSD in direct competition with the ideologically rigid PL, which adheres closely to Bolsonaro’s legacy. This rivalry illustrates segmentation within the right-wing camp, where conservative voters are divided between the pragmatic, moderate stance of the PSD and the more ideologically rigid stance of the PL.

The PSD’s approach in 2024 aligns with the “catch-all” party model, as political scientist Otto Kirchheimer described—a party aiming to broaden its base by appealing across ideological lines. With alliances spanning from center-left to right-wing groups, including roles within the Lula government, the PSD, led by Kassab, extends its reach through pragmatic flexibility. While this invites criticism from rigid right-wing segments, like Bolsonaro’s PL, it enables the PSD to navigate a fragmented political landscape by adjusting to local and national demands.

Decline of the PSDB and Center-Right Reconfiguration

The weakening of the Social Democratic Party (PSDB) in the 2024 elections marks a pivotal shift in Brazilian politics. Once a leading force in municipal politics, with the largest voter base, the PSDB now ranks ninth, having lost substantial representation. This decline reflects the party’s internal fragmentation, its inability to engage traditional voter bases, and the emergence of new forces occupying the center-right space, like the PSD and PL.

Voter migration suggests that the PSDB’s platform has not evolved to meet new voter demands, creating an opening for alternatives better attuned to these needs. The MDB and PSD, now governing some of the largest capitals, underscore the PSDB’s loss of appeal as Brazil’s main center-right force. By not renewing its leadership or agenda, the party has allowed its values to be adopted by other parties that, while maintaining a centrist approach, resonate more effectively with disillusioned PSDB voters.

This shift also points to a phenomenon of dealignment, where voters break party loyalty to seek pragmatic options. In the PSDB’s case, fragmentation not only results in a loss of influence but also strengthens parties capturing centrist voters with approaches that align better with local challenges. This development suggests a new political arena in Brazil, where the traditional dichotomy between the PT and PSDB gives way to a fragmented but prominent right and a center redefined by new leadership.

The Role of Alliances

The 2024 municipal election results underscore the role of alliances (coligações) in the Liberal Party’s (PL) growth strategy, positioning it above the Workers’ Party (PT) in coalition success. An analysis of key municipal coalitions shows that the PL was part of 1,562 winning tickets, compared to the PT’s 1,113. In cities with over 200,000 voters, Bolsonaro’s PL participated in 40 successful coalitions, while the PT engaged in 12, consolidating the PL’s municipal strength.

This preference for center-right alliances, particularly between the PL, PSD, and MDB, suggests a movement away from extreme right-left polarization. Political scientists studying coalitions suggest this trend may reflect a pursuit of pragmatic, less ideologically extreme alternatives that appeal to both conservative and moderate sectors. This is an area ripe for new political science research.

The PL’s expansion strategy, balancing bolsonarismo with a moderate stance, reflects internal divisions. PL President Valdemar Costa Neto advocates for a centrist approach to broaden alliances, while Bolsonaro’s followers hold a more rigid stance.

Flexible coalition-building and a widespread municipal presence position the PL well for future presidential elections, potentially broadening its support without relying solely on charismatic leadership.

The Consolidation of the Liberal Party in Brazilian Municipalities

Bolsonaro’s PL can be regarded as the principal winner of the 2024 elections. Securing 516 mayoral positions, including major capitals, the PL has demonstrated its ability to entrench Bolsonaro’s agenda, evolving from a charismatic movement into an organized political force. Affiliation with Bolsonaro’s ideology has given the PL unprecedented reach, with growth even in regions like the Northeast, where right-wing influence was historically limited, signaling the institutionalization of populist movements within Brazil’s party system.

The strengthening of bolsonarismo within the PL reinforces right-wing polarization, with Bolsonaro as a central figure but with potential for other leaders to emerge. The alliances between pragmatic and far-right factions reinforce the PL’s role as a representative of the institutionalized right, with potential to expand beyond Bolsonaro’s image. This evolving context suggests a right-wing spectrum capable of aligning with bolsonarismo or acting independently, preparing for a future presidential race characterized by a diversified and fragmented right, with a strong municipal presence in key regions.

* Matheus Jones Zago is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Würzburg, Germany. His research focuses on political organizations and cooperatives at the local level.