Editor’s note: This is the first part of a two-part series on the 2024 city elections in Brazil.

by Matheus Jones Zago*

Reviewed by Matheus Lucas Hebling

The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil, held every four years, determine the mayors of 5,570 cities across the country, as well as their city council members. These elections serve as a political thermometer for the upcoming presidential elections, which follow two years later. To become mayor, a candidate must secure 50% plus one of the votes. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the contest moves to a second round. From a political science perspective, these elections offer an opportunity to understand local dynamics and the ongoing disputes between Brazil’s political parties.

The first round of the 2024 municipal elections, held on October 6, showcased varied results and diverse political dynamics across the country’s capitals, highlighting both the strength of the right and opportunities for the left. In São Paulo, the race was marked by polarization between Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), who are heading to the second round. Nunes, the incumbent mayor, received 29.48% of the votes, while Boulos secured 29.07%, signaling a sharp division between different regions of the city: Nunes led in the southern zone, while Boulos stood out in the central and peripheral areas.

In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD) secured his reelection in the first round with 60.47% of the votes, defeating Alexandre Ramagem (PL), who garnered 30.81%. This result suggests Paes’s resilience and a decline in the influence of Jair Bolsonaro in the city, as the candidate supported by the former president failed to win even in traditionally pro-Bolsonaro areas.

Other capitals also featured complex contests. In Belo Horizonte, Bruno Engler (PL) and Fuad Noman (PSD) will face each other in the second round, reflecting a regional competition with the presence of conservative agendas. Meanwhile, in Salvador, Bruno Reis (União Brasil) was reelected with a broad margin of 78.67%, consolidating the right’s dominance in the Bahian capital.

In the Northeast, Recife saw the reelection of João Campos (PSB) with 78.11% of the votes, reinforcing the strength of the PSB in the region. In Fortaleza, the second round will feature André Fernandes (PL) and Evandro Leitão (PT), reflecting a direct contest between the growth of Bolsonarismo and the PT’s attempt at recovery.

Advances and Challenges for Women

Despite no women being elected as mayors of capitals in the first round, there was an increase in the number of women mayors compared to 2020. In 2024, 724 women were elected, compared to 656 in the previous election, according to the TSE. However, women still represent only 15.5% of the total number of elected mayors, while 4,746 men hold 84.5% of the positions.

Proportion of Elected Women by State

The table below details the distribution of female mayors elected in the first round by state:

State

Men Elected

Women Elected

% Women Elected

AC

21

1

4.55%

AL

78

24

23.53%

AP

14

2

12.50%

AM

50

11

18.03%

BA

355

59

14.25%

CE

144

38

20.88%

ES

74

2

2.63%

GO

208

35

14.40%

MA

173

42

19.53%

MT

128

13

9.22%

MS

65

12

15.58%

MG

775

67

7.96%

PA

112

28

20.00%

PB

167

54

24.43%

PR

359

36

9.11%

PE

151

28

15.64%

PI

195

29

12.95%

RJ

71

13

15.48%

RN

122

42

25.61%

RS

453

39

7.93%

RO

48

3

5.88%

RR

11

4

26.67%

SC

256

39

13.22%

SP

543

67

10.98%

SE

61

11

15.28%

TO

112

25

18.25%

Roraima had the highest proportion of elected women mayors (26.67%), while Espírito Santo had the lowest (2.63%).

National Political Context

On a national level, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) stood out as one of the main winners in terms of the number of mayors elected in the first round, followed by the MDB and PP. In contrast, the Workers’ Party (PT) had a more modest performance, making advances in some capitals but facing challenges in others, such as São Paulo, where it relies on Boulos’s performance to extend its influence.

The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil not only provided a diverse landscape of elected mayors but also showed significant changes in the distribution of city councilors and the performance of the main political parties at the local level.

Growth and Leadership of Political Parties

The Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the Progressives (PP), and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) stood out in the election of city councilors, consolidating their positions as the largest groups in municipal chambers across the country. A total of 58,000 councilors were elected, with these traditional parties showing dominance:

  • MDB: 8,064 councilors elected, an increase of 9.7% compared to 2020.

  • PP: 6,914 councilors elected, maintaining a prominent position.

  • PSD: 6,579 councilors elected, strengthening its presence in the South and Southeast regions.

Performance in the Mayoral Races: PSD Takes the Lead

For the first time in 20 years, the PSD surpassed the MDB in the mayoral races, electing 878 mayors in the first round, compared to the MDB’s 847.

Second Round Scenario: Spotlight on the PL

The Liberal Party (PL) performed impressively, participating in 23 out of 51 mayoral runoffs, marking its emergence as a powerful political force.

 

* Matheus Jones Zago is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Würzburg, Germany. His research focuses on political organizations and cooperatives at the local level.